两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水低频特征及低频水汽输送途径差异          下载免费PDF全文

李丽平  倪语蔓  杨春艳  马晨誉 《大气科学学报》2019,42(3):420-433

利用1961年1月—2014年12月Hadley气候预测研究中心的全球海表温度(SST)资料,NECP/NCAR逐日风场、比湿等再分析资料,国家气象信息中心提供的中国753站逐日降水、160站逐月降水资料,对比分析了东部(EP)型和中部(CP)型两类El Niňo事件次年夏季长江-黄河流域降水(简记为EP型和CP型降水)低频特征,以及与之相关的低频水汽输送差异。结果表明,1)平均而言,EP型降水主要有10～20 d(最显著)以及20～30 d(次显著)低频周期;CP型降水主要有10～20 d的低频显著周期。与之相关的纬、经向水汽通量最显著低频周期也为10～20 d。2)影响EP、CP型低频降水共同的低频水汽环流系统主要有:菲律宾群岛附近的异常反气旋式水汽环流和渤海湾附近(日本东南侧)的异常气旋式(反气旋式)水汽环流。另外,影响EP(CP)型低频降水的还有来自巴尔喀什湖东北部异常气旋式水汽环流(孟加拉湾、苏门答腊岛以西的异常气旋式水汽环流对和贝加尔湖西、东两侧的异常气旋式、反气旋式环流)。3)EP型降水暖湿水汽主要源自南海,冷湿水汽主要源自西北太平洋,冷空气来自巴尔喀什湖东北部和贝加尔湖西北侧。CP型降水暖湿水汽少量来自阿拉伯海和印度洋,大量来自热带西太平洋,冷空气主要来自贝加尔湖西北侧。  相似文献   

京津冀地区一次强沙尘天气过程的成因及特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

彭舒龄  周树道  卫克晶  沈奥 《大气科学学报》2019,42(6):926-935

利用常规污染物监测资料、卫星资料和再分析资料等,对京津冀地区在2017年春季遭遇的一次强沙尘天气过程进行分析。结果表明,此次过程是由地面冷锋过境,高空槽后冷空气持续补充引起,沙源地主要位于巴丹吉林、腾格里沙漠,随后以西北路径输送至京津冀地区。前期沙源地感热通量迅速增大,与中低层冷平流叠加,导致不稳定层结增强,助于起沙;高空强风速带加强并向下延伸,中低层次级环流发展,不但使沙尘传输并下降至地面,而且使高层高动量和高位涡冷空气下传,促进低空急流形成、低层系统发展,使大风及沙尘天气维持;沙尘过境时,地面至4 km高度存在沙尘型气溶胶,PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)浓度变化趋势较一致并达到重度污染水平,且气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)与空气质量指数(Air Quality Index,AQI)具有较好的时空匹配关系,重污染时段AOD值大于1,污染减弱时AOD值降至0.6以下。  相似文献   

前期土壤湿度、海表面温度对中国夏季极端气温的预测能力评估          下载免费PDF全文

宋耀明  邹永成  王志福 《大气科学学报》2019,42(5):790-800

基于中国587站日最高、最低气温观测资料、月平均的ERA_interim土壤湿度（Soil Moisture,SM）再分析资料及扩展重建的海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）资料（ERSST）,对极端气温指数进行了定义,利用变形的典型相关分析和集合典型相关分析方法（Ensemble Canonical Correlation,ECC）,分析了1979-2009年我国夏季极端气温与前期（春、前冬）SM、SST间的线性联系,建立了中国夏季极端气温预测模型,并对独立样本检验的效果进行了评估。结果表明：1）与中国夏季极端气温联系密切的前期SST异常的空间分布为类PDO（Pacific Decadal Oscillation）型,前期土壤湿度异常的区域为华南、青藏高原、东北和西北地区。2）交叉检验结果表明基于前冬预测因子的极端气温预测模型技巧高于春季,基于SM的极端气温预测模型技巧高于SST。3）独立样本检验表明基于前期SM、SST的ECC模型对中国东部夏季极端气温有一定的预测能力。因此,可以在夏季极端气温的预测业务中考虑前期SM、SST的影响。  相似文献   

高寒区抽水融冰渠道水温沿程衰减规律——以红山嘴水电站为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郑铁刚  宗全利  孙双科  吴素杰 《水科学进展》2018,29(5):667-676

抽水融冰技术是解决高寒区引水式电站冬季运行冰害问题的有效措施之一。为研究抽水融冰对电站引水渠道冬季引水的水温控制规律,以红山嘴水电站为例,基于RNG κ-ε模型数值模拟研究结果,从热流量比角度探讨了渠道水温沿程衰减规律,并采用2013年2月和2014年1月原型观测结果进行了验证。结果表明:渠道水温沿程衰减过程可分为骤降段、过渡段和缓降段3部分,各段范围受外界条件控制;衰减曲线呈幂函数分布,相关系数达到98%;对比气温对渠温沿程衰减的影响表明,随着大气温度的降低,渠道水温沿程衰减速度明显加快;-10 ℃为水温衰减过程变化转折点,当气温高于-10 ℃时,可以近似认为渠温衰减规律一致,渠温沿程变化主要受到热流量比值影响;低于-10 ℃时,气温对渠道水温沿程变化影响显著。  相似文献   

Using climate to relate water discharge and area in modern and ancient catchments     

《Sedimentology》2018,65(4):1378-1389

Models relating sediment supply to catchment properties are important in order to use the geological record to deduce landscape evolution and interplay between tectonics and climate. Water discharge (Q _w) is an important factor in the widely used ‘BQART ’ model, which relates sediment load to a set of measurable catchment parameters. Although many of the factors in this equation may be independently estimated with some degree of certainty in ancient systems, water discharge (Q _w) certainly cannot. An analysis of a world database of modern catchments with 1255 entries shows that the commonly applied equation relating catchment area (A ) to water discharge (Q _w = 0·075A^0·8) does not predict water discharge from catchment area well in many cases (R ² = 0·5 and an error spanning about three orders of magnitude). This is because the method does not incorporate the effect of arid and wet climate on river water discharge. The inclusion of climate data into such estimations is an opportunity to refine these estimates, because generalized estimates of palaeoclimate can often be deduced on the basis of sedimentological data such as palaeosol types, mineralogy and palaeohydraulics. This paper investigates how the relationship between catchment area and river discharge varies with four runoff categories (arid, semi‐arid, humid and wet), which are recognizable in the geological record, and modifies the coefficient and exponent of the above‐mentioned equation according to these classes. This modified model yields improved results in relating discharge to catchment area (R ² = 0·95 and error spanning one order of magnitude) when core, outcrop or regional palaeoclimate reconstruction data are available in non‐arid systems. Arid systems have an inherently variable water discharge, and catchment area is less important as a control due to downstream losses. The model here is sufficient for many geological applications and makes it possible to include variations in catchment humidity in mass‐flux estimates in ancient settings.  相似文献   

基于GNSS-IR双系统组合的土壤湿度多星线性回归反演模型     

梁月吉  赖建民  任超  丁琴  施亚杰  胡欣淼  卢献健 《大地测量与地球动力学》2022,42(5):477-482

提出一种GPS/BDS双系统组合的土壤湿度多星线性回归反演模型,并以GNSS接收机实测数据为例,对比分析不同GPS和BDS卫星组合反演土壤湿度的效果。实验表明：1)GPS和BDS双系统组合相对于单系统在短观测时间内可以提高有效卫星数,通过多元线性回归原理可实现双系统多卫星的有效融合,提高土壤湿度反演的精度;2)当GPS和BDS组合卫星数达到6颗以上时,反演效果趋于稳定,反演结果与土壤湿度的相关系数均优于0.90,RMSE相对于单星至少提高25.8%。  相似文献   

Helmert方差分量估计严密公式与简化公式等价性的证明   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘长建  吴洪举  明锋 《测绘科学》2006,31(2):66-67

在分析了Helmert方差分量估计严密公式与简化公式迭代收敛结果一些统计性质的基础上,导出了关于收敛结果共同的求解方程,从理论上证明了两种结果的等价性,为使用简化公式提供了依据。  相似文献   

高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考          下载免费PDF全文

徐大红  胡萍  杨群  李习瑾 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(2):9-17

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征、地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退、东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持、低层冷平流下传西输、地面辐合维持增强为涡旋、地面东路弱冷空气侵入、能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应、低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置、中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。  相似文献   

Characteristics of Lake Breezes and Their Impacts on Energy and Carbon Fluxes in Mountainous Areas     

Lujun XU  Huizhi LIU  Qun DU  Yang LIU  Jihua SUN  Anlun XU  Xiaoni MENG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):603-614

In mountainous lake areas, lake–land and mountain–valley breezes interact with each other, leading to an "extended lake breeze". These extended lake breezes can regulate and control energy and carbon cycles at different scales. Based on meteorological and turbulent fluxes data from an eddy covariance observation site at Erhai Lake in the Dali Basin,southwest China, characteristics of daytime and nighttime extended lake breezes and their impacts on energy and carbon dioxide exchange in 2015 are investigated. Lake breezes dominate during the daytime while, due to different prevailing circulations at night, there are two types of nighttime breezes. The mountain breeze from the Cangshan Mountain range leads to N1 type nighttime breeze events. When a cyclonic circulation forms and maintains in the southern part of Erhai Lake at night, its northern branch contributes to the formation of N2 type nighttime breeze events. The prevailing wind directions for daytime, N1, and N2 breeze events are southeast, west, and southeast, respectively. Daytime breeze events are more intense than N1 events and weaker than N2 events. During daytime breeze events, the lake breeze decreases the sensible heat flux(Hs) and carbon dioxide flux(F_{CO_2}) and increases the latent heat flux(LE). During N1 breeze events, the mountain breeze decreases Hs and LE and increases F_{CO_2}. For N2 breeze events, the southeast wind from the lake surface increases Hs and LE and decreases suppress carbon dioxide exchange.  相似文献   

The First Global Carbon Dioxide Flux Map Derived from TanSat Measurements     

Dongxu YANG  Yi LIU  Liang FENG  Jing WANG  Lu YAO  Zhaonan CAI  Sihong ZHU  Naimeng LU  Daren LYU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1433-1443

Space-borne measurements of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations provide global observation constraints for top-down estimates of surface carbon flux.Here,the first estimates of the global distribution of carbon surface fluxes inferred from dry-air CO_2 column (XCO_2) measurements by the Chinese Global Carbon Dioxide Monitoring Scientific Experimental Satellite (Tan Sat) are presented.An ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) data assimilation system coupled with the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model is used to optimally fit model simulations with the Tan Sat XCO_2 observations,which were retrieved using the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Carbon dioxide retrieval Algorithm for Satellite remote sensing (IAPCAS).High posterior error reduction (30%–50%) compared with a priori fluxes indicates that assimilating satellite XCO_2 measurements provides highly effective constraints on global carbon flux estimation.Their impacts are also highlighted by significant spatiotemporal shifts in flux patterns over regions critical to the global carbon budget,such as tropical South America and China.An integrated global land carbon net flux of 6.71±0.76 Gt C yr~(-1) over12 months (May 2017–April 2018) is estimated from the Tan Sat XCO_2 data,which is generally consistent with other inversions based on satellite data,such as the JAXA GOSAT and NASA OCO-2 XCO_2 retrievals.However,discrepancies were found in some regional flux estimates,particularly over the Southern Hemisphere,where there may still be uncorrected bias between satellite measurements due to the lack of independent reference observations.The results of this study provide the groundwork for further studies using current or future Tan Sat XCO_2 data together with other surfacebased and space-borne measurements to quantify biosphere–atmosphere carbon exchange.  相似文献